by Andrea Ferrario

"Guerre&Pace", n.48, April 1998

THE IRAQI CRISIS - The dramatisation by the USA of the Iraqi crisis has forced many eastern-European countries, still in the delicate phase of the Nato enlargement to the east, to side either with Washington and London or with the more moderate stance taken by Paris, Moscow and other countries. The relative proximity of each country to being admitted into the alliance has certainly influenced the individual decisions. Amongst all, the position that stands out the most is the one taken by the CZECH REPUBLIC, whose full support of the United States has been voiced by the foreign minister Sedivy and, most of all, by president Havel who, in a public address to the nation, has declared himself in favour of a direct military involvement of his country, adding that he believes very unlikely that a "Czech aeroplane will be the one to hit Saddam Hussein’s palace." On the American side is also POLAND, whose foreign minister Geremek (a renown ex-dissident like Havel) has personally promised Madeleine Albright, during a visit to Washington, that his government will send a military unit to the gulf in the eventuality of an attack. Ready for action is also HUNGARY which, in the attempt not to appear outdone by other countries, has promised to "support the international coalition with every means possible," as it did in 1991. In particular, the Hungarian foreign minister has mentioned logistics, transports and the concession of national air-space, with clear reference to the big military base of Kaposvar, which already hosts American troops and aeroplanes which support the intervention in Bosnia. Evidently, the same intention not to appear outdone before the USA on the eve of their admission into Nato must have had its weight on the full backing offered by the three countries. More so in the light of the rumours coming out from Washington about American concern over the recent political crisis in the Czech Republic, which undermines the stability of the country, and the inadequate level of preparation of the Polish military forces, for which the USA have asked Warsaw for an increase in defence expenditure. SLOVENIA, which is currently a temporary member of the UN Security Council, has officially declared its intention to vote in favour of "any resolution demanding the use of force." Other countries, less pressured by impending deadlines, have also sided with the USA but taking more moderate positions. ROMANIA, through a spokesperson for the foreign ministry, has expressed support for the American project while voicing concern over the situation. The Romanian government, according to its spokesperson, is constantly in contact with Washington and the ministry does not "confirm nor deny" rumours about the possible sending of troops. BULGARIA, whose president Stojanov has recently been on a visit to Washington, has expressed hope that military action will not be taken, but stated its understanding for the aggressive attitude adopted by the USA. Stojanov has made a point to remind that Bulgaria has credits with Iraq for 2 million dollars which cannot be recuperated out of respect for the sanctions. This credit, together with the money owed by Yugoslavia and blocked by more existing sanctions, would be enough to repay the whole heavy foreign debt, Stojanov added. The only dissident voice is that of SLOVAKIA, which is one of the countries left out of Nato’s expansion. A spokesperson for Bratislava’s foreign ministry explicitly affirmed that "Slovakia will tenaciously oppose" the use of force against Iraq and will press "on the international community to outlaw the employment of force for the solution of international crisis."

NATO - The Nato council, which has examined the plans for the continuation of its operations in Bosnia, has been meeting in Brussels over the past few days. The member-states have decided to continue the operation with the same force presently employed (35,000 troops) at least until the next elections, scheduled for September, after which the alliance will consider the possibility of a small reduction of its presence. All representatives have expressed their support for the creation of "special units" for the keeping of public order. The "special units" should be actual paramilitary corps; the Italian Carabinieri, the French Gendarmerie and the "British police force in Northern Ireland [RUC]" have been given as examples. Asked by the journalists about the tasks of the units, the representatives of the member states answered that, rather than the arrest of those accused of war-crimes (which remains the responsibility of the military authorities), the paramilitary forces would deal with "crowd control and uprisings." It should be added that, according to unofficial sources quoted by the Belgrade newspaper "Nasa Borba," the United States would be ready to allow an eventual crisis between allies over military attacks on Iraq to fall upon the mission in Bosnia.

New developments for Nato and the USA have involved other neighbouring countries. The United States, through the commander of the allied forces in Europe, Wesley Clark, have officially asked Croatia for the use of military bases in order to station troops in support of the operations taking place in Bosnia. The Croatian defense minister Susak has mentioned the possibility that the bases of Zadar and Slavonski Brod may indeed be given in use to the Americans. Strategically, both localities have huge importance: Zadar, is a port-town with a central position on the Adriatic Sea; Slavonski Brod is in Slavonia, the region in which the Yugoslavian conflict broke out and only recently returned under Croatian control - its location is of remarkable importance as the city is on the border with Bosnia and very near that with Serbia. If the project goes ahead (which seems almost certain) the USA will have a quadrilateral of bases (Zadar and Slavonski Brod in Croatia, Kaposvar in Hungary and Aviano in Italy) of great importance for the control over the Mediterranean, the Balkans and eastern and central Europe. Furthermore, Croatia has also officially requested to join the Partnership for Peace, the Nato programme intended for those countries willing to prepare for membership of the north-Atlantic alliance.

Even further south Nato appears to be gaining more space. In YUGOSLAVIA sensation has been caused by the declarations of the head of the Armed Forces, Momcilo Perisic, who said that "Yugoslavia will have to join the Nato programme ‘Partnership for Peace’ if it does not want to remain isolated and if it wants to prosper in future." Identical statements have been made by Vladimir Dodik, the newly elected premier of the BOSNIAN SERB REPUBLIC, whose words have been defined by Nato headquarters in Brussels as "extremely encouraging." In MACEDONIA the project concerning the opening of the Krivolak military base to Nato forces, who will carry out permanent exercises with neighbouring countries, has had its ultimate approval. President Gligorov has recently requested that from next August, when the UN forces belonging to the UNPREDEP mission (which is made out of two thirds of American troops) will withdraw from Macedonia, the USA station troops in protection of the country, as already suggested in the past weeks by Madeleine Albright. "If the USA are not be willing," added Gligorov, "we shall make the same request to Nato."

A new Euro-Atlantic military initiative has also been launched in northern Europe. Germany, Denmark and POLAND have agreed a joint military force which will control access to the Baltic Sea. The force will have its headquarters in the port-town of Stetting and will be made out of three divisions (one for each country), for a total of 25,000 troops and will represent the first permanent military mission by Nato in central-eastern Europe. The initiative has caused vigorous protests from Moscow, which has accused Nato of "advancing towards Russia arms in hand."

(Sources: RFE/RL, "Nasa Borba," "Nova Makedonija")